they have carb steady, with carbs that digest slowly to help minimize blood sugar spikes. [ male announcer ] glucerna hunger smart. a smart way to help manage hunger and diabetes. welcome to "the cycle." from washington, i'm krystal ball. reid calls boehner a dictator. ah, the holiday spirit. it is alive and well here. i'm steve kornacki in new york. doesn't matter where you are. we are going to slide down the slope if a deal isn't reached. some faster than others. today, what you don't hear in all of this. straight talk when it comes to your wallet. i'm toure. a big day today. anti-fragile. chaos can be good. oh, we'll make them mad today. >> maybe a little too much chaos for us who's still feeling under

the weather, s.e. but we have a whole hour of "the cycle" starting right now. it's basketball thursday here on "the cycle" and we have a classic for you as we relate dr. nasmith to the fiscal whatever here in washington. we take you to washington for last night's cavaliers-wizards game, a classic between the boehner-led cavs at 6-23 against the harry reid wizards at 3-22. pay attention, kornacki. cleveland won. the final was 87-84. this even though cleveland's best player irving missed 9 out of 10 shots in the second half and missed 4 out of 6 free-throws with no one guarding him.

>> ouch. >> as for my wizards, four turnovers in the final five minutes falling to 3 wins and 23 losses. >> pathetic. >> the bulls game of obama postponed because of snow last night. he's now making a final try with congress and there's no denying a new plan is in the works. even in the opening prayer to kick off today's proforma session in the house, the chaplain prayed for congress to make a deal. but they're now adjourned until sunday night and that is where we begin with nbc's white house correspondent peter alexander and mike vicquiera on the hill. >> reporter: when derek rose is back for the chicago bulls, trying to get those answers for you as soon as possible. >> thank you, i appreciate that. >> reporter: of course, the real question right now here at the white house is exactly what's going to happen over the course of several days and can they avert the fiscal cliff? to stick with your metaphor of basketball, if rose were to go

the length of the court for fans on one side, left to right, fans on other side, right to left, if he scores it is the same basket but use the metaphor and apply it to the conversation of exactly where these tax cuts could take place if they happened after january 1st. the republicans want to vote to lower taxes. okay? see them go right to left as it were. the democrats want to see them go down and the republicans it appears increasingly clear are not going to vote to change the figure below the $1 million mark that boehner didn't get past the caucus unless they say to their people at home, they voted to lower taxes on all americans. >> peter, that was extraordinary. >> reporter: i tried. >> one of the best on this show. thank you! >> we have also got mike viqueira. mike? a lot of people and myself included believe that the payroll tax cut is the most damaging part of this for the middle class. if we do not extend it $125

billion comes out of the economy this year. so, you know, when's the latest on the payroll tax cut? any chance it's extended as part of a deal? >> reporter: great question. i cannot compete with peter's metaphor. it's a full court heave as the buzzer is sounding. that's the odds for a deal before monday night new year's eve. the payroll tax cut, krystal, never on the table honestly if you talked to folks involved in the negotiations, folks on k street and interested and have their ear to the ground in tax policy. you realize that the payroll tax cut, an extension of the holiday, never seriously considered and part of the reason is there are folks on both sides who think it's a bad idea, only in terms of if you're a democrat, payroll taxes are dedicated to social security. and other social safety net programs and shortchanging them in the long term and if you're on the republican side, you don't like the targeted -- some

of these targeted taxes, as well. that was never really on the table. there's a whole host of other things, $2,200, income tax, estate tax, dividend tax, all of those set to go up on americans and what is expected to be a disaster for every household. if for some reason we go over the cliff and don't do something at the beginning of january and go back retroactively and adjust the rates, krystal. >> yeah. >> peter, you said something a minute ago and significant and if there's going to be a deal, that ends up leaving some taxpayers, wealthy taxpayers, paying higher than now, it's next year for republicans to sign off on it saying it's a tax cut in some form and gives democrats to wait until next week to strike a deal and wonder besides getting what they want or most of what they want on taxes if they wait until next week, is there anything else

they can get in a deal in terms of we are talking about unemployment insurance, in terms of, you know, investment income and the tax rates and stimulus and looking for more stimulus and just be a tax cut deal next week or more components to it? >> reporter: it's a good question. they're having enough struggles with the tax issue and hard to imagine anything greater than that but you have to believe ba based on what we have heard, unemployment insurance would have to be extended, as well. i don't know exactly if that's one of those items that could be retroactively fixed until it didn't place until early days of january right now. an interesting thing takes play now even as we talk about the newest member of the senate from hawaii being i guess he was sworn in a short timing a by the vice president joe biden, one of the folks, a lot of journalists on the hill right now keeping a close eye on mitch mcconnell's office to see if vice president biden is swinging by today and one of the ways that the two

sides may be having a form of a conversation today given the fact that we believe absent the calls, the president put out to the leaders, the house and the senate, that there's been no more conversations absent those between senior staff today. >> viqueira, a little birdie around the building said there's a pool that some people are in betting on when this thing will be wrapped up. and i heard you have january 10th. i would like to know your thoughts on why you picked january 10th. i would like to know what is the outlier date in this pool and if you have any intel on who else is in the pool. >> reporter: well, i mean, i'm sure i take no satisfaction in being right in this. there's a lot at stake here and certainly we look at gambling on legislation so there's money wagered. having said that, toure, i mean, you know, there's just too many ways to lose votes in this thing and not enough to gain votes in this thing and given the dynamic, the bedrock dynamic of the house of representatives, we talk about the majority of the

majority rule as if it's something new and the previous speaker invented it. it's been that way virtually since the time of henry clay running this place. and so, if that rule is inviolate and can't pass the plan "b" how on earth do they do it at $400,000 or even $250,000? let's just say one more thing. perspective. the debt, the national debt which incidentally we will exceed some february, timothy geithner warned congress, $16 trillion. we are talking about a difference of about $450 billion between the last 2 positions we know of between the speaker and the president, $450 billion over 10 years. it is a minuscule amount and arguing over principle. when it appeared they weren't arguing about principle anymore, that's when the burst of optimism happened two weeks ago.

between 39.6% and 35% for the top rate. oh, well, somewhere around $750,000 for the income level. you know, it turns out some people not finished talking about principle and very influential and very powerful and house republicans circles and appears that as we were talking about with peter, you go over the cliff, this is more likely whether it's a grand bargain thing and addresses the income tax cuts and unemployment insurance as peter was mentioning you come back and do it and sworn in january 3rd and john boehner elected speaker, later that week or the next week, that's my guess having observed it several years. sometime january 10th, let's say, to pull a date out of the air, a thursday. anyway, i have no crystal ball. >> no offense. >> no pun intended, right? >> yes. but actually -- i do have one. back to you. let's quit while i'm behind. >> peter, you want to place any

bets and get in on the pool there? >> reporter: as long as it's not cash on the table, we might as well. i'm thinking this thing has to happen by the same week, i think a couple of days before mike mentioned but i think that's when it's likely to happen and clear this is as mike noted all about principles right now. >> i do want to quickly on the next issue coming down the pike, the debt ceiling as mike noted, that's set to expire. they can sort of extend it moving money around but i thought bernstein had an interesting take on how the president may approach the debt ceiling. you either negotiate with terrorists or you don't. i take the president at his word that it's "b." how do you think the president will approach the debt kreeling? >> reporter: i mean, let's put it in to this conversation the facts we know. at the end before the talks collapsed, the last offer of the president was that the debt ceiling knocked back for two years. speaker boehner said one year if that came along with entitlement

cuts. he was trying to cut spending, in fact, in the course of the process. the republicans view this as another leverage opportunity, a chance to restrain spending. the president views it as a chance to sort of, you know, i guess more control over the situation and exactly over the details of the terms of this that he wants. at this point, hard to know exactly how it plays out but clear that it's not a part of whatever happens regarding the fiscal cliff. that's something that's kicked down the road as they try to deal with the tax numbers. >> sounds like fun. thanks so much, peter and mike. and straight ahead this afternoon, the real cost of continued silence about the fiscal cliff from our leaders in washington. their failure to lead speaks volumes. but what does it really mean for your bottom line? straight talk from "fortune" magazine. that's next. [ male announcer ] it's that time of year again.

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if washington doesn't make it rain -- >> oh! >> by january 1st you have to recover from more than the new year's hangover and might sober you up fast. hundreds of dollars from your wallet and know it's not because you left it at the bar. yes, calling it a fiscal slope

because the majority of the fallout coming out over months and as we said yesterday for millions of americans the impact will be immediate. federal unemployment benefits automatically stop for 2 million people and impact all u.s. workers on the payroll tax and rate for social security at 4.2% reversing to 6.2% and extra $1,600 most americans won't see or $136 a month starting with first the paycheck of 2013. happy new year, everyone. even if congress strikes a deal don't expect the cash to come back. they'll likely let the payroll tax cut expire. legal ger joe gallagher joins u. there's a real issue here going away but i think the bottom line is whether there's a deal the next few days, in the first few weeks of 2013, that's gone. we have to reconcile ourselves to. but to ask about, we can put a

big price tag out there but a lot of stuff i think it's fair to say is not going to end up impacting people. the vast majority of the bush tax cuts extended for everyone it seems in the alternative median tax and fix every year and probably fixed, too. what are we really talking about here in terms of the cost for people? >> it is true, steve. if there's a deal many of the changes will be small, especially -- i mean, the one thing everybody agrees on is the middle class should not go through the increase. the payroll tax cut, if your check is cut this week, you won't see it but you will in the second one. that's happening automatically and a good sign in a way. we're sort of in a -- that was part of the stimulus bill and recovering or we would be if it weren't for the nonsense so -- >> there are forecasts saying it cost about six points of growth next year without the holiday and stimulative. >> it is.

people spend it more than they -- they tend to save. this is a tax that studies show that people do go out and spend opposed to saving it. >> they don't notice it. but there's a broader conversation that maybe we need to have about what the payroll tax is in the first place taking up 35% of the revenue coming in to the federal government and regresive in many ways and what it does is funds social security. so should we have even been tinkering with that in the first place? >> one tax cut that, you know, the democrats lobbying for and the republicans did not want because it's technically a stimulative effort. don't forget when it was enacted we were in the middle of a crisis. i think, you know, all sides would probably agree it helped and worked but it's probably time to go away so that's sort of, you know, it is the most immediate thing and i think that was inevitable anyway. the far greater concern is the

bush tax cuts and what happens to them. >> you talk about the middle class shouldn't feel the pain here and everybody agrees with that but the working class, absolutely shouldn't have to pay for this and feel the pain but taking, getting rid of unemployment ben filths, talk about the price of milk going up and other things like that, that will have a huge impact on the working class, people that don't have savings dealing with losing $3,400 and can't deal with that at all and that's going to have ripple effects on other things, other industries. talk about those sort of people being affected and the effect that will have. >> i mean, the unemployed, right, they feel the pain more. and even with the payroll tax and other taxes, it's the, you know, the absolute number is highest at the top 1% or top fifth but as a percentage of income, felt more in the middle and lower income classes so unemployment is a terrible thing if it happens because as you know unemployment, i mean, sort of like a vicious cycle.

the longer you are in it, the longer you are likely to stay it and the benefits are needed you could argue more than anything else and the rate coming down but, you know, if this goes on, i mean, we might see it go back up again. that's a critical thing. >> leigh, it's nice to see a woman there. >> absolutely. >> i have to say. but, you know, two other elements of tax changes that have been talked about less than the bush tax cuts and the payroll tax cut are for the wealthy, capital gains set to go back to the clinton era rates. they're at 15% rate now. i think personally that's still too low at 20%. and then another one that, again, we're really hitting the working poor, the earned income tax credit which is basically a way to incentivize work and made more generous under the bush administration and under the 2009 stimulus bill.

what kind of impact those two changes going to have? >> that's a great example of we talk about the income tax but there are just -- there is a whole pan plea of taxes you don't talk about and think about and part of the grand discussion if it ever happens after the new year. that will be probably not going in to effect. i think, you know, probably the most urgent ones are the unemployment benefits and payroll tax and up for discussion, as well. i think in obama's proposal, he wasn't moving as much on the dividend tax as a compromise but, you know, that never settled at the end of the day. >> all right. enjoy that 4.2% payroll tax rate while it lasts. >> absolutely. up next, freedom of speech with the right to bear arms. that's in the spin cycle.

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the school shooting in newtown, connecticut, is a sobering reminder that sometimes guns fall in to the hands of people who should not have them. but what if there was a way to find out exactly who in your neighborhood owns a gun? the journal news, a local newspaper in new york city published a map of the names and addresses of every person who holds a gun permit. as you can see, the map is made up of tens of thousands of dots representing people who own gun permits in westchester county. some people are furious. so is this fair game for anyone wanting to exercise the 2nd amendment right or is it an

outrageous invasion of privacy. i have to say this wrang ls for me. no matter where you stand on the debate, publishing names and home addresses in this context is really inappropriate. and look. i understand that a lot of the information is publicly available if you go out and search for it but to me this smacks of sort of naming and shaming responsible gun owners and making them seem as if they're criminals and frankly, you know, i think this is a mistake that liberals make in this debate a lot. it feels like we're conflating people who own guns with people who are criminals. and that's why we lose on this issue a lot and i'd say, you know, if the information was publicly available of muslim americans after 9/11, would it be okay to publish their names and addresses and make them targets? this is toetdly unacceptable. >> that's a false equivalence. being muslim does not have a

negative impact. owning a gun has a negative potential impact on me. i don't know why you call it shaming. you have a gun for potential deterrence possibilities. now that's improved. people know don't go there. they might be able to do something. look, i have the right to know, i think, who has a gun and doesn't. maybe i don't want to go there and my kids going there or maybe go home -- >> they're not sex offenders. >> we know that guns are generally not used against intruders, much more likely used against friends and family and making decision i don't want to be around that home where there's a gun and things escalate to another level, then i have the right to make that choice. look. we treat guns as a private choice but they're really a public matter in that having a gun impacts the community, the local community, the national community, you know, you have a chart of leading causes of violence related deaths in

america. from 5 to 9, almost every category, the number one cause of death is a gun. i should be able to know, hey, there's a gun there. i choose to not go there. if you have it for deterrence, you should want people to know, don't come in here. we're packing. >> it's totally different to make that choice for yourself, advertise that you have a gun. adam lanza stole it from his mother and the name wouldn't have been on this list. >> hold on. there's the point, krystal, i think. nancy lanza would have been a law abiding gun owner and i would like to know if i was moving out to the suburbs, i would like to know if the next door neighbor had a stockpile of weapons like she had. that's a decision that if you're moving in to a community, moving in to a particular neighborhood, i do think there's valuable information there. if you have kids or just in general, if you're going to live in an area, valuable to know, are lots of privately owned

firearm s in this area. i'm in the middle on the ethics. there's a serious issue of pausing and thinking about it naming individual names and personal information like this in this kind of context although i'm swayed by the fact that this is publicly available information. at a certain point, we have already made the decision as a society that this information, who owns a gun, what their name is and where they live and this information should be out there and only thing they have done is to go out and collect it. if we want to take a step back and say it should be locked away and sealed, fine. right now we have made a decision as a society that this is public information. >> look again. it's the different matter of people want to go out and look for it on did internet. that's one thing. but in this context, in the wake of the sandy hook tragedy and people are upset about guns in the community, about gun owners, about people like nancy lanza, i think when you publish people's names and addresses in that way, in that context, you really make

them in to targets and that's unfair. i'm reminded of tom perielo running for re-election someone published what they thought was home address on a blog locally and a person went to that address and cut the gas line there. it was actually his brother's house who had children. fortunately, they were out and thank god no one was injured but i think you have to be really careful and again that was publicly known information but opening people up to be targets like that and treetding them like criminals, they're not sex offenders. they're law- >> biding people that went to the trouble -- >> isn't there an issue with if you're moving in to a neighborhood, if you're moving in to a community, isn't that a valuable piece of information to know potentially if you have children or raising them -- >> steve, let me respond to that. >> because we published their name. >> but that's fine. why the names and addresses?

why do you need to know specifically the name and address? general information about -- >> hold on. >> but the specifics of where people live, i don't think that's okay. you have to be very careful with that. >> if you're moving in to a development and two houses down or three houses down and a stockpile of weapons there, i think that's valuable. >> so is it important to you to own a gun and be secretive that you own that gun and nobody else can know that you have it? >> no. >> so people might come in to your house and not aware you have that? >> they're not treated like criminals and their privacy -- >> this is not about treating them like criminals. >> it is. >> nothing here treats them like criminals. >> who else is named and shamed like this? only group to think of is sex offenders. >> i don't see how this is shaming. >> if you are -- >> well, no. no, hold on. this kind of thing has been done before. i think of examples in massachusetts, for instance,

there was a group to put an anti-gay marriage referendum on the state ballot. you have to go collect signature. so they put the name, anybody that signed the petition, a public act and the names publicized. >> i don't think that's okay either. >> they send out to people who you voted for, when you voted and didn't vote. is that -- i mean, that's a way of shaming? we put out lists of people who donated to different candidates. so i mean, we let our neighbors know what we're doing in various different ways. >> sure. but publishing in the newspaper -- >> i don't know why you assume this is shaming. >> publishing in the newspaper in this context is a totally different thing. entirely. and frankly, i think this sort of thing undermines the liberal argument for gun control because it allows the right to caricature us as naming and shaming you and we think that responsible gun owners are criminals. we'll come for your guns. >> the nra fearmongering against obama. >> sure.

we don't have to give them an easy out. by invading people's privacy. we are stoking fear in this instance. >> we are not stoking fear. the nra does that. they're whole jb. >> s.e. over here trying to say something. i agree with steve and toure. >> no, no. >> whoa! >> get her on the line. >> didn't see it coming. >> you are outvoted. >> sorry. >> i don't think she'll ever take a day off again. up next, best selling author of "the black swan" is here to teach us all how to be anti-fragile. when you have diabetes...

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what does this mean? what's the implication of this? the impact of a highly improbable? >> the title says it all. >> thanks for stopping by.

>> that's rock traditional market financial theory and black swan to mean large-scale unpredictable events of massive event. he said most of histories comes from black swans but what if you didn't fear them but benefited from them? the professor and former trader has a new book, how to be the opposite of fragile, explaining how systems can benefit from trauma. the book is "anti-fragile." it's a fascinating book and a work of genius and it's an honor to nassim taleb at our table. >> thank you for inviting. >> let's unpack this basic thesis behind the book. you're talking about anti-fragile systems. we should not fear them because they take on trauma and become better and stronger. give us an example. >> so let me tell you the big problem. when you ask someone, when's the opposite of fragile, they come up with solid.

>> robust. >> robust. resilient. i hate that word. all these are not the opposite of fragile. fragile breaks under stress. okay? the opposite gains from stress. the adaptable. that's a silly gain from stress. category of things, about half of life. are things that not only gain from stress but are harmed if you don't give them enough disorder, stress, volatility, vags, stuff like that. your bones. you know? you go to the gym. you need to -- if you don't put stress on your bones, what happens to them? they become brittle. well, it's the same thing to so many domains and no word to it and it came to me that, hey, everybody fears black swans. not necessarily bad. a lot of things to gain from stress, disorder, the unpredictable. >> give me an example of a system that wants stress, that benefits from trauma. >> well, a good system that benefits from an uncertainty, whether two systems, take both

of them. to get a good idea. the reason we are not eating tonight, i'm going to a restaurant. the reason i'm not eating soviet style cafeteria food because every failure in the restaurant business improved the food on the table. it's bad for the restauranteur. we have to be human about things but the failure rate in the business determines the quality of the service you're going to get. you know, transportation is very, very safe. you know? air transportation. why? because there's never, never, never a plane crash that doesn't improve the safety of the system. and happening now for ever since -- >> every time the system breaks down, ntsb comes in, figure it out and supposed to try to -- >> make it better from errors and from -- so this is a very, very, very anti-fragile system and should build like that.

you have a crisis. compare it to the economic system. not the same. a bank crashes. what happens? probability of the next crash is higher. not lower. not a good system. i don't want to live in a world in which disorder harms you. i want a system that benefits overall from disorder. maybe not all parts benefit but overall should benefit from it and unfortunately we don't have that anymore. >> so you are a former trader and one of the things you do focus on and just mentioned is the financial services industry. how could we specifically reform them to be more anti-fragile in your opinion more functional? >> overall to have an economy more anti-fragile what you need is number one less debt. and of course, if you have less debt, then you'd have -- you would worry much less about the banks. equity financing is vastly better. you know, in california we had

the crisis in the '80s. sorry. in 2000. the crisis. there was no debt. and, you know, people recovered. california's very anti-fragile because they benefit of every era, every problem. they make lemonade of every lemon. so that's the first thing is less debt in the system. it's a combination. to have an economy that's anti-fragile. you need also to have less deficit on the part of government and transfer it to the states. more decentralized decision making. why? because if you do you have decentralized errors. not one error dragging you down and last decade two errors in the down. iraq war. you know? it was a horror from human side. but it cost between 40 and 120 times the original estimates. you don't want mistake that is are very large. a fragile system is one in which mistakes are costly and the

benefits are small and anti-fragile system is one in which mistakes are small and bring long-term benefits. we want to be in that environment and environment that ben filths of mistakes. >> i hear what you're saying. shifting the debt burden from the federal government and states and federal government is a better position to carry debt. states have these constitutional balance budget amendments and bail out the states, isn't it? >> this is exactly the problem we have is that the government finds it easy to borrow and runaway deficit. let me explain the big thing. a project in the uk where we have good data, 100 million pounds, uk project, 30% more cost overruns than 5 million project. small is beautiful and more efficient than you think. so having the government, centralized one bureaucrat make a mistake, okay, massive consequences. it looks okay until they make a mistake. it's a lot bigger.

plus, another thing. there's no skin in the game on a part of bureaucrats. bureaucrat makes a decision. that's the central thing. federalize the system and i was asked how to make the financial industry better. force people to have skin in the game. nrds, have people harmed by the mistakes. >> sure. >> you are not harmed as a bureaucrat, not harmed by the bureaucrat. a mayor, you're shamed. that's maybe enough, just a little bit that you need to force someone to make a good decision. you see? skin in the game and bankers don't have skin in the game. so one of the necessary rules is that those who make a mistake should be exposed to harm and not harm others, you know. that would -- we have known since -- once civilization started based on reciprocity of mistakes and disappeared now with a system where people make mistakes in washington and you and i, april 15 pay for them. >> we pay for them. our mistakes sometimes.

thank you so much for being here. >> thank you. >> fantastic stuff. >> thank you. >> fantastic book. thank you very much. if chaos means success then washington is going to be happy. but who will rise to the top next year? politico's top 13 of 2013 is next. ♪ ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] everyone deserves the gift of all day pain relief. this season, discover aleve. all day pain relief with just two pills. and with my bankamericard cash rewards credit card, i love 'em even more. i earn 1% cash back everywhere, every time. 2% on groceries. 3% on gas. automatically. no hoops to jump through. that's 1% back on... [ toy robot sounds ]

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so who will everybody be talking nabt 2013?

our friends at politico are out with their 13 people to watch in politics next year feature. politico's anna palmer helped compile the list and joins us now. anna, so you got 13 for '13. tim scott, corey booker, elizabeth warren. do you have a couple in mind that stand out and should be paying attention to next year? >> absolutely. some of the names you might have heard of. paul ryan, for instance. but there's also names i think are particularly interesting on this state level right now that have some real national potential appeal. particularly juan who is the san antonio mayor, he has been talked about as a potential national figure and has also potentially could be really elevated with a 2014 memory coming out and camilla harris, the attorney general out of california. she has some big aspirations people tell us and the

democratic operatives with the eye on her noted she could be a potential eric holder, attorney general or a national political figure. >> well, you mentioned a look at the states and put my nominee in there. i have to mention it. i love when the old folks manage to stay relevant. i think this is a great story out of california. jerry brown. age 74. he's been in politics for like 50 years. his father was the governor in the '60s and he managed something incredible this year in california. ungovernable state, he went out and campaigned for a tax hike and the voters approved it and gave democrats a supermajority in the state legislature and first time since we can remember, an opportunity, a two-year window for big and innovative things to happen in california and interesting to watch next year. i put that nomination out there for the heck of it. >> i like it. well, hey, maybe we have to consider you next time as we go around and try to pick the politicos. >> anna, any time you talk about

politics, you should consider talking to steve kornacki snowing pretty much everything. i'm glad you put camilla harris on the list. attorney general of california. serious contender i think for the governor's mansion coming up. but a name that isn't on the list that i'm surprised and i think should be on the list, somebody who a lot of people will be talking about and rooting for in 2014, jenny sanford. talking about running for the house from south carolina. sharp, tough woman, and anybody who likes to see the triumph of a divorced working mother wronged by her husband, this is a person people want to rally around, right? >> it's like a country music song but we have tim scott on the list and i think really, really deserves to be there. he made headway as a freshman republican. he's to be the first black senator from the south in over three decades and i think -- >> but he's not elected. it's no the like got behind him

and voted for him. he's appointed. it's not really breaking that barrier. >> i think he's going to break some barriers. he's certainly been very effective. was able to be in leadership as a freshman and counted on as part of that team, so i think there is an expectation level that he will be somebody to watch next year. >> you know, anna, one person you had on the list who i am not a fan of but who will be interesting to watch in 2013 is paul ryan, and i actually think that he did himself and his reputation a lot of damage as the vice presidential nominee running with mitt romney. he had this rnc speech that was basically packed with lies. he got on the debate stage with joe biden and i think biden definitely got the better of him. i think even republicans who maybe didn't see biden wiping the floor with him quite the way that i did, felt a little dispoupted. they have little respect for joe biden's intellect, they thought paul ryan would come in and wipe the floor with him. that definitely didn't happen. interestingly, paul ryan has

been largely absent. i mean, really, almost completely absent and silent during the fiscal cliff negotiations. so what do you think we're going to see out of him in 2013? >> certainly he's not where he wanted to be, which is working out of the white house, but, you know, i think he has been -- you're right he hasn't been maybe very vocal in terms of making press statements but he's somebody speaker john boehner looked it, when you're in the capitol, he's in huddles with other lawmakers and they definitely still respect. the idea that his reputation and brand was hurt rubbinning as a e president, i think a lot of the blame at the end of the day will be put on mitt romney. if you talk to republicans, they're already looking at what his prospects are for 2016 in terms of fund-raising and name recognition. >> all right. go ahead, krystal. >> i was just going to say one that i love on there that i will definitely be watching is elizabeth warren particularly now in the senate banking and finance committee.

that will be a great one to watch in 2013. >> all right. great, fun with the salt here. anna palmer thanks. and look at that. the waterford crystal ball has arrived in times square just in time for our year-ender show tomorrow. how perfect is that? we'll have a look back tomorrow at our own krystal ball and the best of "the cycle's" best moments in 2012. and we'll reveal our cycle person of the year. wonder who that will be. speaking of chrkrystal ball, up next, why the nra won't be on her list of names to watch in 2013. new years clutter is no match for someone with big ideas. with a new project in mind, some how-to knowledge to give us an edge, and more savings down every aisle. it only takes a few twists and turns for those bright ideas to make the new year even brighter. more saving. more doing.

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gun control, mind control, government out of control. americans, we don't much like being controlled or told what to do, and the second amendment speaks not so much to our right to hunt deer or even to protect ourselves against a burglar as it does to our right to not be disarmed by our government. we have experienced a totalitarian britain who disarmed and abused our forefathers. having the right to bear arms meant that a foreign power or be a overreaching central government would have to think twice before quartering soldiers in our houses without permission or imposing through force policy that is a vast majority of americans wanted to resist to the death. bearing arms is a symbol we're a free people and we control our own destiny. guns became powerful cultural symbol passed from parents to children that includes a respect for nature and a hunting culture that values self-sufficiency and natural food.

for the longest time the gun control debate pitted mostly rural americans against urban elites who sometimes fail to respect rural values. i ran for congress in a district with a strong second amendment tradition and i have been around guns my entire life. but i saw the knee-jerk extremism that the right wing caricature of gun control caused with extremist groups like the nra asking, well, what about guns in bars. if you don't support it, you're an enemy of the second amendment. what about guns in church, at the hospital. what about buying ten guns at once? democrats supporting any restrictions were assumed to support a complete ban on guns. we were coming to take your guns away. now, when a powerful interest group like then ra wins on an issue, they tend to go to such extremes in their victory they end up losing and balance is ultimately restored.

this happened in the aborths debate where debates over partial birs apportion and parental notifications for 14-year-olds made democrats who opposed all abortion restrict n restrictions look extreme and republicans were able to use that to caricature us as pro abortion. now it's republicans who look extreme on this issue and it is once again become a winning issue for democrats. president obama, for example, won two-thirds of single women. americans have a tradition of respect for the second amendment but they know our freedoms and liberties have to be respectfully balanced own other important goals for our country, goals like keeping school children safe, keeping terrorists and the mentally ill and criminals from owning guns. americans look at the nra's take no prisoners, give no quarter, arm a teacher response to the sandy hook tragedy